Description: Term products exhibit a wide range of behavior as policyholders can elect different term periods and conversion options. While term products have been around for decades, it's only recently that longer level term products are reaching the end of the level term period. Term conversions have historically been an afterthought and are rarely modeled. Discuss the use of predictive modeling techniques such as LASSO regression and cross-validation to build models for level term lapses and post-level term shock lapses, as well as the extrapolation of experience for shorter term products to longer term products (e.g., extrapolating 20-year term experience and applying to 30-year term). Explore the use of traditional techniques to develop term conversion rates and a framework for modeling the assumption. Challenges and limitations of setting lapse and conversion rates will be discussed. By attending the session, you will: - Understand the complexities of term policyholder behavior. - Understand the challenges in developing and implementing assumptions for lapses and conversions. - Understand the application of traditional and predictive modeling techniques for term policyholder behavior.

Description: Insurance carriers today must balance a multitude of factors to remain relevant and innovate- -process improvements and efficiency (automated or traditional); -customer experience (less intrusive, more data); -distribution (aging traditional, product focus, emerging opportunities); and -mortality. While these factors are not new, true innovation in these areas require a convergence of engagement among actuaries, underwriters and data scientists to determine the specific pain points and appreciate both the benefits and consequences of various paths. Explore examples of how best to approach these topics, engage different disciplines, avoid pitfalls and ensure a holistic view. Real life examples and lessons learned will be shared during this session.

Description: Almost half of recent FDA approvals have been for orphan drugs. This trend is expected to continue in 2023. Orphan drugs are priced more than 30 times higher than non-orphan drugs, therefore their cost burden in aggregate has the potential to overwhelm the budgets of payers, especially that of smaller health plans. Hear how the cost impact analysis for smaller health plans require different considerations than for a larger health plan when modeling the impact of rare diseases.

Description: SOA predictive analytics certificate program provides strong theoretical background and practical, hands-on experience that can be applied to decision making

Description: Reunite with members and non-members in the China actuarial community to discuss recent topics and related issues in areas such as macroeconomic sharing, IFRS 17, product strategy, cross-border communication and discussion, and more. Advance your career through learning and networking opportunities, and share your experiences in the finance and insurance industries, as well as other fields related to actuarial science.

Description: This is a 4-hour predictive analytics competition. It will be developed by the PAF and Modeling section. The competition will use publicly available data and ask participants to predict the outcome. The person with the best prediction will win the competition. The competition can be done on an individual for team basis. We don’t allow more than 4 people on a team.

Description: Data needed to run the Hack-a-Thon that was held at the 2019 PAS.

Description: Read the Society of Actuaries' latest update about how health care executives view the future of predictive analytics in the health care industry.

Description: Read the May 2020 issue of Actuarial Technology Today published by the Technology Section. Newsletters provide practical information for the working actuary, articles on trends that impact sections and news about section activities.

Description: Risk adjustment (RA) is a key component for CMS Medicare Advantage program and California Medicaid Managed Care program. While both RA programs follow generally accepted basic principles at a high level, their underlying methodologies and assumptions are also quite different. Due to recent events such as COVID-19 Public Health Emergency and Medicaid redetermination delay and restart, it adds complexity to Risk Adjustment. This is a hot topic in the industry and has significant impact to health plans. Keeping current with risk adjustment program changes and understanding the commonalities and differences of these two government risk adjustment programs is important to our health actuaries. Compare these two risk adjustment programs so you can learn key elements of a risk adjustment program, similarities and differences in methodology and assumptions , as well as special considerations due to serving different populations.